已經記不得何時開始就不再許新年願望了。
大概是從潛意識告訴我，自己的願望從來沒實現過那時開始。
而且我懷疑，到了年中或年終，自己還能想起自己年初曾許過的願望嗎?
或許也是那時候開始，我學習對事務進行規劃，月計畫、季計畫到年計畫。
即使執行不利或因事耽擱，我仍然在軌道上。
至於人事，至今還沒了解過，故只能隨遇而安。
但是
此時此刻，破例許個願望。
能否實現?機會高低?
我不想作推算。
I can’t concentrate on the studying now!
The ridiculous library is testing emergency alarms everyday since last week. How could anyone read in a noisy place like this?
But the main reason could be that I’m tired in mind. I didn’t push myself very hard during the fall semester. All hardships come to me at the end of the semester and almost knock my out.
I am afraid I cannot test my mind and stay in the lab on Christmas Eve like I did last year. Maybe I should take 4 or 5 days off to recharge. There are two games awaiting me for being completed. Usually the three pillars of my life are studying, exercising and eating, but now gaming substitutes for studying in these holidays.
Speeding up on Christmas Eve
Speeding up on Christmas Eve
The final exam required us to price longevity bonds and incorporated long-run risks into pricing. It is said no paper does this very successfully so far. One of the biggest problems is that there are many uncertainties should be considered.
To simplify the analysis and make the pricing tractable, I consider only two uncertain sources: interest rates and life expectancy. Since the coupon payment will not be realized until a period of time after the holder purchases the bonds, it is no doubt we need a stochastic discount factor to calculate its price today. This is the same for the mortality rate which is expected to be declined with time. Mimicking the idea of forward rate, I create something called forward mortality rate. Then assume both of them follow Ito process.
Assigning an arbitrary life length, T, I can calculate the present value of coupon for each period starting from the day of realization to T. The price of longevity bonds is just the sum of present values.
Of course it is impossible to get the closed-form present value or price unless we know the exact form of Ito process and T.
The take-home exam is as hard as hell, but it's indeed a good practice for modeling.
To simplify the analysis and make the pricing tractable, I consider only two uncertain sources: interest rates and life expectancy. Since the coupon payment will not be realized until a period of time after the holder purchases the bonds, it is no doubt we need a stochastic discount factor to calculate its price today. This is the same for the mortality rate which is expected to be declined with time. Mimicking the idea of forward rate, I create something called forward mortality rate. Then assume both of them follow Ito process.
Assigning an arbitrary life length, T, I can calculate the present value of coupon for each period starting from the day of realization to T. The price of longevity bonds is just the sum of present values.
Of course it is impossible to get the closed-form present value or price unless we know the exact form of Ito process and T.
The take-home exam is as hard as hell, but it's indeed a good practice for modeling.
The last day of dead week is a snowy day.
Always I don't read weather forecasts, so it is an enjoyable surprise to see snow flakes flying around in the air. Sitting in front of the window and taking a sip of hot coffee, it seems reading a finance paper is not so annoying.
To memorize the first big snow day at Raleigh in winter 2010
Always I don't read weather forecasts, so it is an enjoyable surprise to see snow flakes flying around in the air. Sitting in front of the window and taking a sip of hot coffee, it seems reading a finance paper is not so annoying.
To memorize the first big snow day at Raleigh in winter 2010
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
- Follow Us on Twitter!
- "Join Us on Facebook!
- RSS
Contact