新年新希望

已經記不得何時開始就不再許新年願望了。
大概是從潛意識告訴我，自己的願望從來沒實現過那時開始。
而且我懷疑，到了年中或年終，自己還能想起自己年初曾許過的願望嗎?

或許也是那時候開始，我學習對事務進行規劃，月計畫、季計畫到年計畫。
即使執行不利或因事耽擱，我仍然在軌道上。
至於人事，至今還沒了解過，故只能隨遇而安。

但是
此時此刻，破例許個願望。
能否實現?機會高低?
我不想作推算。

Gaming, Exercising and Eating

I can’t concentrate on the studying now!

The ridiculous library is testing emergency alarms everyday since last week. How could anyone read in a noisy place like this?

But the main reason could be that I’m tired in mind. I didn’t push myself very hard during the fall semester. All hardships come to me at the end of the semester and almost knock my out.

I am afraid I cannot test my mind and stay in the lab on Christmas Eve like I did last year. Maybe I should take 4 or 5 days off to recharge. There are two games awaiting me for being completed. Usually the three pillars of my life are studying, exercising and eating, but now gaming substitutes for studying in these holidays.

                                        Speeding up on Christmas Eve

寒冬

今年冬季來得頗慢。但入冬後，氣溫立刻跳空跌至攝氏零度以下。這幾天更颳起該死的大風。低溫寒風配挫折最對味了。

趁著期末考結束到寒假開始期間，處理一些重要的事項。
詢問獎助學金之可能→沒有。
找論文指導教授→被打槍。
還莫名其妙要多修一門課。
這個系上除了找麻煩和我付的學費外，什麼都沒有。

去年的12月24日早上，我在數學系的研究室。對門的一個年輕的教授問我這時為何在此?
去年的爛回答是reading；如果是今年，還有比"test my mind"更好的回答嗎?

個人一向很自負，而寒假結束後，我將比以往更自負。

Pricing Longevity Bonds Makes Live Shorter

The final exam required us to price longevity bonds and incorporated long-run risks into pricing. It is said no paper does this very successfully so far.  One of the biggest problems is that there are many uncertainties should be considered.
To simplify the analysis and make the pricing tractable, I consider only two uncertain sources: interest rates and life expectancy. Since the coupon payment will not be realized until a period of time after the holder purchases the bonds, it is no doubt we need a stochastic discount factor to calculate its price today. This is the same for the mortality rate which is expected to be declined with time. Mimicking the idea of forward rate, I create something called forward mortality rate. Then assume both of them follow Ito process.
Assigning an arbitrary life length, T, I can calculate the present value of coupon for each period starting from the day of realization to T. The price of longevity bonds is just the sum of present values.
Of course it is impossible to get the closed-form present value or price unless we know the exact form of Ito process and T.
The take-home exam is as hard as hell, but it's indeed a good practice for modeling.



Snow Day

The last day of dead week is a snowy day.
Always I don't read weather forecasts, so it is an enjoyable surprise to see snow flakes flying around in the air. Sitting in front of the window and taking a sip of hot coffee, it seems reading a finance paper is not so annoying.

                       To memorize the first big snow day at Raleigh in winter 2010

Thanksgiving

I missed the beauty of fall again.
When I gain something, I lose something.
But is the tradeoff fair?

Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey

At the peak of the FPS era, old-fashioned, especially turn-based, RPGs had faded. Wizardry, Might & Magic and Ultima retires or target a small group of audience by another forms. A few confront the trend and survive. Shin Megami Tensei (SMT) is one of them. By including sensitive religious issues and modern world into its essences, SMT series stands apart from numerous RPGs with medieval styles.

The first few titles I had played were Megami Tensei Gaiden: Last Bible I & II on GB. and SMT I on SFC. I didn't think them were bad, but their styles are not type. Due to its appealing trailer, the latest title Strange Journey on NDS catches my eyes. It doesn't disappoint me. The absorbing plot, challenging boss battles and powerful orchestral music all tell why the series lives so long.

For 20 plus years of gaming experiences,  I had been learning to be more open-minded to any kind of games. Maybe I should apply the same mind to any aspect in my life.

 

 Shin Megami Tensei (真 女神轉生): Strange Journey. The box art is strange enough. This game is rated M for mature because of blood, violence, and sexuel themes. I guess religious sensitivity is the reason behind this, however. 

在黑夜相會

       連續幾晚都做夢。前兩三日醒來後，仍依稀記得夢到同一個人，然後就呆坐床上。幾分鐘後才回過神來。

       昨夜，則是身在一個非常不同的夢境中。那裡的天色也是黑暗的，異常的黑暗。一座有蓋的大型甲板從陸地延伸到漆黑的海面上。甲板上點了幾盞燈火，這裡將有一場比武。約有十來個左右的人觀戰。我背對著陸地，對方則是背對著大海。夢中的我，未見對方長像，但知道他是段數在我之上，而我也頗有自信自己能獲勝。身穿白色武道服，我拿了一條咖啡色腰帶，準備繫上。這時卻發現，這條腰帶太短又太細。試了幾次，又經旁人協助，仍無法成功繫在腰間。慌張之下，突然醒來。

       前幾夜的夢境尚能理解，而昨夜之夢頗為奇異。如要說有相同之處，那可能是兩者都反映過去的遺憾。

萬中選一/萬分之一

在書店待了許久，晃了幾圈，最後還是一本書都沒買。選擇太多反而讓人不知從何下手。在這個人人可以寫書，出版爆炸的時代，要挑中適合自己的課外讀物實在不容易。

除了一些由名人掛名，卻由他人代筆的書外，我最討厭的就是小書了。就體積而言，小書大部份都不小，但是內容卻乏善可陳。通常都是由許多小故事，加上看似頗負寓意的結語組成。這類書經常不是一頁沒幾個大字，就是行距過寬。根本不需要買，站著看完整本腿都還不覺酸。因為缺乏明顯主題，連帶使整體架構非常鬆散。走出書店立刻忘了所有內容。可惜當今有不少著名作家專寫這類書籍，某位旅美作家更是箇中高手。

論純粹娛樂，小說可能最好。只是我寧可買片有不錯劇情的RPG，自己融入故事更具娛樂性；財經類書籍雜誌一樣缺乏興趣。一年至少有300天都與相關的教科書為伍，再看這些實在是種折磨。而且，多數內容過於直覺，難有新鮮感，自然興趣缺缺。

從前對政治思想有些射獵，家裡書櫃還擺了幾本相關書籍。但或許是因為式微，潛在讀者稀少，所以書店也不進這類思考嚴謹的書籍了。現在即使架上有幾本有關政治的讀物，常是從標題或封面文字就開始強調其聳動性，我連翻都不想翻。。我認為，在自由社會接受過高等教育又經過社會化者，已經有獨立思考能力可分析現實政治，不需要這些書來傳達"真相"或“預言”給我們。

即便扣除以上類別書籍，剩餘也是數以千萬計。每次走出書店，手上拿著的那本書，看似經過精挑細選，實則和閉著眼亂抓相差無幾。